太平洋潜热通量及其与黄淮夏季降水的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

胡雪  王文  李理  黄山江  谢旭生 《气象科技》2015,43(3):482-487

研究了1979—2010年太平洋潜热通量的变化特征及其与中国黄淮夏季降水的关系。结果表明,潜热通量的气候场和方差场均存在着明显的季节变化,且各季节气候场的极值中心也是变化幅度较大的区域。黄淮地区降水与前期春季的潜热场相关性最好。定义了黄淮夏季降水指数来研究影响降水的潜热场关键区,发现春季潜热关键区为10°~20°N之间的中东太平洋和热带东太平洋沿岸海区。春季当上述两个海区净潜热通量增多时,后期夏季500hPa和850hPa位势高度异常场中,在太平洋西海岸-阿拉斯加南部一线上均表现为"正—负—正"的分布型,黄淮降水偏多。  相似文献   

IMPACT OF SSTA OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON FLOOD SEASON PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN YUNNAN     

杨竹云  杨素雨  严华生  张瑾文 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(3):255-264

Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean global SST and wind from the NCEP/NCAR and the observation data of rain seasons in 124 stations of Yunnan province from 1961 to 2006, we applied the analytical methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis and a significance testing method to two sets of samples of average differences. The goal is to investigate into the influence of the Southern Hemispheric (SH) SST on the summer precipitation in Yunnan from January to May so as to identify the key time and marine regions. Physical mechanisms are obtained by analyzing the influence of sea level wind and the key marine regions on the precipitation during Yunnan’s rain season. Results show that there is indeed significant relationship between the SST in SH and summer precipitation in Yunnan. The key areas for influencing the summer precipitation are mainly distributed in a region called “West Wind Drift” in the SH, including the Southeast Indian, southern Australia, west coast of eastern Pacific off Chile, Peru and the southwest Atlantic Magellan. Besides, the most significant marine region is the west coast of Chile and Peru (cold-current areas of the eastern Pacific). Diagnostic analysis results also showed that monsoons in the Bay of Bengal, a cross-equatorial flow in the Indian Ocean near the equator and southwest monsoon in India weaken during the warm phase of the Peruvian cold current in the eastern Pacific. Otherwise, they strengthen.  相似文献   

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth.  相似文献   

轨道扣件病害自动化检测研究及应用     

侯海倩  唐超  赵丽凤  张昊 《测绘通报》2021,(8):88-92

传统扣件检查基本采用人工检查方式,不仅工作效率低、劳动强度大,而且人为干扰因素多、检查采样率低。针对以上问题,本文提出了一种基于线结构光传感器的轨道扣件损伤和松动检测方法,并开发了轨道扣件智能监测系统以实现扣件病害自动检测。最终将研究成果应用于徐州市某地铁区间轨道扣件检测,验证了该方法的可行性和准确率,为地铁轨道扣件检查提供了新方法。  相似文献   

泥岩渗流-应力耦合蠕变损伤模型研究(Ⅱ):数值仿真和参数反演     

贾善坡  陈卫忠  于洪丹  李香玲 《岩土力学》2011,32(10):3163-3170

进一步分析了第Ⅰ部分[1]提出的泥岩渗流-应力耦合蠕变损伤模型。在连续损伤力学理论和比奥(Biot)理论的基础上,导出了考虑渗流-应力-损伤耦合的蠕变损伤有限元格式,建立了弹性预测、塑性修正、损伤修正-渗透系数修正的数值分析框架,编制了非线性有限元分析程序。根据监测的衬砌长期变形数据,采用优化反分析法获得了蠕变损伤模型中的待定参数,并应用于比利时核废料库施工过程中泥岩巷道围岩渗流-应力耦合过程、损伤演化以及长期稳定性分析,研究结果表明,泥岩开挖后渗透性明显增大,约为原岩的120倍,蠕变效应导致泥岩裂隙和渗透性自愈合,约3.5年后渗透性基本恢复到原岩的数量级,围岩中部的蠕变明显大于顶部和底部。研究成果对软岩隧洞长期稳定性的预测与预报具有一定的参考意义。  相似文献   

滴西12井区储集层伤害机理研究及防膨效果评价     

冷严  吴运强  殷新花  阿达莱提  宋志理  王兰芬 《新疆地质》2011,29(4):466-469

针对滴西12井区勘探开发中可能存在的储层伤害问题,通过开展储层敏感性特征、注水适应性评价及防膨稳定剂效果评价等综合研究,结合该区块储层具体情况,明确现场注水伤害类型及程度,推出相对合适、匹配、经济实用的防膨稳定剂,减小注水开发过程中储层敏感性伤害,增强注水开发效果,从而达到高效、合理开发滴西12井区油藏目的.  相似文献   

Kirchhoff叠前时间偏移关键参数分析与研究     

顾雯  王铎翰  阎建国 《物探化探计算技术》2011,33(2):140-146

叠前时间偏移已经成为地震资料处理的常规手段之一,在构造复杂但速度横向变化不大时,应用克希霍夫叠前时间偏移方法,一般可以得到较好的成像效果。但是叠前时间偏移是一项系统工程,一些配套技术的选取和一些关键参数的选取,直接影响到成像结果。这里根据O-MEGA2处理系统制定的叠前时间偏移的处理方法和流程,对叠前时间偏移处理的配套技术和关键参数（叠前道集偏移距分组、偏移孔径和倾角选取、均方根速度建模、旅行时算法）进行了分析总结,结合试验程序进行了研究和讨论,并提出了关键参数选取的基本原则,对实际处理工作具有一定的应用价值。  相似文献   

云南保山从干树金矿控矿条件及矿床成因讨论     

李先棋  涂向衡  杜彦强  李琼仙 《云南地质》2011,30(2):130-133,140

从干树金矿赋存于怒江构造带高黎贡山岩群变质岩系中,有两个明显的次级矿化带,具多期次成矿作用特点:前期可能为沉积变质赋矿,后期为剪切(构造热液)成矿。晚期在浅部风化淋滤富集。剪切作用形成的金矿是主体。  相似文献   

强度折减有限元在堤防稳定分析中的应用研究     

张芳枝  陈晓平  梁志松 《工程地质学报》2011,19(2):244-249

采用强度折减有限元法,研究非均值堤防塑性区的开展特征和失稳破坏过程,并根据堤防应力场分布和临界滑动面的形成来分析堤岸整体失稳破坏的机理.结果表明:把强度折减有限元应用到非均质土层的堤防边坡稳定分析,在理论上、数值模拟实现上都是可行的;有限元静力平衡和位移计算不收敛作为堤防边坡整体失稳的标志,同时考察滑移面上某些特征点的...  相似文献   

舟曲“8．8”特大泥石流治理中的关键技术研究     

王根龙  张茂省  张新社  赵成  胡向德  李瑞冬 《西北地质》2011,44(3):100-106

舟曲“8．8”特大泥石流灾后治理中的关键技术研究是治理工程首先需要解决的问题,包括3个关系,即泥石流流量与排导沟断面关系、泥石流冲击力与拦挡坝强度关系、泥石流物源级配与柔性防护拦疏关系。提出了长流水小排水槽、一般山洪泥石流中排导槽、特大山洪泥石流生态景观休闲大缓冲区的设计理念,解决了百年一遇泥石流对排导沟流量与断面的设计要求。提出用钢混结构重力式拦挡墙替代原有浆砌块石重力式拦挡墙,满足了坝体对冲击力与强度的关系。建议在流通区设置SNS柔性防护网,采用钢丝绳环形网在发挥拦挡的同时达到泄水的要求。研究成果对于舟曲泥石流灾后治理设计方案具有科学价值。  相似文献